• We are uncertain on what the focus will be of the international community in the future, what will be the post 2020 goals? • Regulation changes are unknown for the future. There could be development of further regulations to protect Canadians with respect to mine development, the LNG industry and GHG emissions. • The global energy mix is major uncertainty o LNG going ahead in western Canada o How quickly will the world shift to renewables o What will be the demand/price of oil • Future land use and land use policy is a big unknown. The region is geographically constrained, and most of the big brown-field redevelopment sites have been done. This means that new additions will have to go into communities, which will be contentious. Question 4: What are some of the assumptions that should not be held about the future of the Vancouver gateway? Themes that were consistent: • There is an assumption that because of our strategic position as a gateway into Canada / North America we have a huge competitive advantage. However, all that needs to happen is another port is opened, or there is a change in legislation and this assumption no longer holds. • Similarly, we are viewed as a popular cruise ship destination. All that needs to happen is a change in US legislation (for ships to be allowed to stop at multiple ports of call) and this disappears. • The continued growth of China and Asia Pacific, and the fact that we will successfully penetrate these markets, is also an assumption that we should be wary of. • We should not assume that the funding model can remain the same in the future. We will need to look for other innovative funding models. • Assumptions that our trading partners will remain the same are flawed – we should not assume trade with US will remain as open as it is today. • An assumption that current product and commodity mix (i.e. import/export) will stay the same should not be held. • We cannot assume that the way of life in Canada is getting better continuously in the future. Diverging/Unique viewpoints: • Growth forecasts show a straight line increase in growth; however we should not assume such forecasts are correct. • We should not assume that competition will remain as it is today. For example, there will be changes in competition for LNG • We should not hold the assumption that trade routes will stay the same. • That democracy and rule of law will persist in South America may not be true. Question 5: Do you feel that the uncertainties captured in the axes of the scenario matrix are still the most appropriate for framing up the scenarios? Are the end-points still appropriate? Themes that were consistent: • The axes are still appropriate to frame up the scenarios, and all scenarios feel plausible • The reality may be a combination of elements form each scenario, but certain things in each box are going to happen • Expectation is that we will end up somewhere between “Rising Tide” and “Great Transition” • The energy environment is not as clear in the scenario narrative as it should be • The global prosperity axis should be more about energy and the environment Port 2050 Scenario Update Initiative - 2015 37