Table of Contents 1 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Key Drivers of Change ............................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Scenario Axes .......................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 Scenario Narratives .................................................................................................................. 3 2 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 4 2.1 Purpose of this Report.............................................................................................................. 4 2.2 Port 2050 Scenario Update Process: Overview and Background ........................................... 4 2.3 Port 2050 Scenario Update Process: Objectives and Approach ............................................. 4 2.4 Selected Influencing Trends Since 2010.................................................................................. 6 3 Key Drivers of Change ........................................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Capacity to Grow ...................................................................................................................... 9 3.2 Demographics and Shifting Social Values ............................................................................. 10 3.3 Energy Transition ................................................................................................................... 10 3.4 Gateway Competitiveness ..................................................................................................... 11 3.5 Geopolitical Stability ............................................................................................................... 12 3.6 Patterns of Production and Consumption .............................................................................. 13 3.7 Innovation ............................................................................................................................... 13 4 Scenario Axes ....................................................................................................................................... 15 4.1 Capacity of the Gateway ........................................................................................................ 16 4.2 Global Prosperity Model ......................................................................................................... 17 5 Scenario Narratives .............................................................................................................................. 20 5.1 Scenario 1: Local Fortress ..................................................................................................... 21 5.2 Scenario 2: Missed the Boat .................................................................................................. 24 5.3 Scenario 3: Rising Tide .......................................................................................................... 26 5.4 Scenario 4: The Great Transition ........................................................................................... 29 6 Appendix ............................................................................................................................................... 33 6.1 Glossary of Terms .................................................................................................................. 33 6.2 Stakeholder and Expert Interview Summaries ....................................................................... 34 6.3 Drivers of Change Data-Pack ................................................................................................ 39 6.4 Port 2050 Web Brochure (developed in 2010) ....................................................................... 55