Question 1: Looking back over the last four years, have there been any new significant issues, changes or developments in the external environment which might change the scenarios as developed in 2010? Themes that were consistent: • There will be an increased focus on climate change, driving a move towards sustainable energy. However, the growth is Asia Pacific will challenge the pace such a change can occur. • The focus has moved from the economy in 2010 to energy today. In the future it may move more towards water. • Global economic growth has been slower than predicted in 2010. • The emerging world will account for a vast majority of growth, despite the fact that growth in China has slowed. This will result in a world in which economic power is concentrated in China. • First Nations issues are higher profile than they were in 2010, with greater levels of consultation becoming the norm. • Energy issues result in uncertainty driven by potential impacts of oil prices and the Arab spring. • Increasing global volatility seems here to stay. • There is an increasing importance of social media as a tool to connect globally and drive changes to the status quo. This was not fully considered in 2010. • Ships are getting bigger so terminals need to keep growing to stay competitive. At the same time the Port is going to find it even more difficult to acquire new land. • There is uncertainty around Vancouver’s desire to continue to be a port city in the future. Diverging/Unique viewpoints: • Never in history has innovation been more important to shipping • Public opposition is growing louder, often through use of social media outlets to pressure companies to change • International governments are becoming activists for the first time. • The competitive environment is going to become more challenging as additional competitors emerge and the US market is taken away by other countries. • US is still a significant growth market, growth is expected at 30M people every 10 years. • Carbon regulations in China and the US put pressure on coal, and we see a sharp decline in China coal imports. • A sharp decline in price of solar, wind, energy storage is expected. • Re-on shoring of manufacturing in North America is driven through increased automation. Question 2: As you think about the external environment of the Vancouver gateway over the next 35 years, what external forces are you certain will influence its future? Themes that were consistent: • Increased concern around climate change will receive huge focus and the world will make increasingly large efforts against. This will change the energy and geographic landscape • The global economy will continue to grow, particularly in Asia Pacific and the US • The ageing population in Canada is going to be a significant issue which will have an impact on the port in terms of labour force and productivity. • The population in Canada is going to continue to grow, and immigration will be an important part of this • There will be pressure on the port to expand which will require great investment and have a major effect on infrastructure. We will be in competition with transportation projects for funding requests and the work that is going to be required to upgrade infrastructure may cost more than what the region can afford with the current funding model. Port 2050 Scenario Update Initiative - 2015 35