1.4 Scenario Narratives Finally, each of the four scenarios have been revised to ensure that they reflect the updates to the key drivers of change and the two most critical uncertainties captured in the scenario axes. There were no fundamental changes to any of the Rising Tide, Missed the Boat and Local Fortress scenarios and any changes were focused on aligning the scenario narratives to the updated key drivers of change and the most critical uncertainties forming the axes. Changes to the Great Transition scenario were more significant than those of the other scenarios. This stemmed from the discussions around the Global Prosperity Model axis and focused on what the transition to alternative prosperity models looks like. While the theme of a move to a different prosperity model is retained, it has been re-framed as more of an inflection point than what was implied by the previous scenario as ‘the world hitting rock bottom’ – the latter idea was not seen as plausible by participants. To make the journey toward an alternative prosperity model seem more plausible, the volatility that is described as becoming significant, has been clarified by describing the events that may embody that volatility. Finally, the idea that economic drivers would form a part of the transition was also emphasized. For example, these economic drivers include economic incentives to use alternative energies and penalties for using hydrocarbons. The final summary scenario frame based on the updates to the key drivers of change, scenario axes and the scenario narratives is shown below. More underlying detail is provided in the remainder of this report. Port 2050 Scenario Update Initiative - 2015 3