The more bandwidth available, the more likely This prediction has focused on Gbit/s services via fixed people are to squander it, at least in relative terms. lines to homes and premises, but by end-2020 it is This is similar to the evolution of programming. possible that such speeds will also be attainable over When processing power was limited, coding was very cellular mobile connections. LTE advanced currently efficient. As processing power steadily increased, it offers up to about 500 Mbit/s in trials, and up to 323 made less and less sense to spend time refining code 250 Mbit/s in commercial offerings . Carriers that 322 such that it ‘sipped’ power . A similar transition has deploy 5G branded services are likely to offer Gbit/s happened with bandwidth: the more availability of it at services, and there is likely to be a mixture of trials the same price, the more consumption. and limited commercial launches of service in the run 324 up to 2020 . Bottom line A Gbit/s Internet connection might appear frivolous, but a decade ago some commentators may have questioned the need for a touchscreen-based device capable of transmitting data at 150 Mbit/s, with storage for tens of thousands of HD photos, video quality sufficient for broadcast, a pixel density superior to most TV sets, a secure fingerprint reader, and billions of transistors within a 64-bit eight core processor. Yet modern smartphones with this specification are likely to sell in the hundreds of millions of units this year. While a Gbit/s connection for a single device and a single application may be overkill, consumers are 325 likely to continue accumulating connected devices in the long term . ISPs should proceed cautiously and be able to respond rapidly. ISPs that launch Gigabit/s too early, and increase speeds on all other service tiers at the same time, may encourage some subscribers to downgrade to a lesser tier. However the offer of Gbit/s service by some ISPs may oblige a rapid 326 response by other players in the same market . Device vendors and application developers should constantly review how the increasing pace of broadband speeds, or response rates, is likely to make previously unviable gadgets or services possible. As broadband speeds rise, TV broadcasters should consider the extent to which they need to continue using traditional broadcast technologies to deliver content to homes. It may be the case that for some neighborhoods they no longer need to use satellite, cable or terrestrial broadcast to deliver programs into customers’ homes. While this prediction focuses on 2016, and the Gigabit/s era, it is most likely that the speed race will not conclude upon reaching this speed. We would expect Internet speeds to continue rising in the long term; 10 Gbit/s has already been announced, and 50 Gbit/s connections are being contemplated for 327 the future . Technology, Media & Telecommunications Predictions 2016 49