An event or an era? | The scenarios Scenario 4 1 4 Rising from the ashes 2 3 High Crisis, High Cooperation A closer look A severe virus and stagnant economy Hypothetical signals that We never really get the virus under control. It spikes during the fall and winter of 2020. Most this scenario is emerging treatments are ineffective and vaccine progress stalls. The healthcare system is pushed to the brink, with emergency hospitals popping up in a dozen states. The number of lives lost steadily climb and These potential headlines are intended then even surpass 405,000—the number of Americans who died in World War II. No one escapes the to be thought-starters, not predictions. impacts of the virus—especially in communities of color. There isn’t really an end in sight. Another vaccine fails The economy sputters along but doesn’t collapse. Great Depression-levels of infrastructure building, in trials work programs, social safety net spending, and transfers to state governments prevent the worst of the worst. Nevertheless, unemployment jumps as there is only so much demand that the Fed revises economic government can create. outlook downward— Truth, reconciliation, and coming together again The destruction from the virus causes the country to come together and face hard truths. Even though everyone faces loss, racial inequities are so blatant that most Americans can no longer National Affirmative overlook them. That creates a space for truth-telling that Black, Latinx, Native American, and other Action bill gains steam communities of color face disproportionate hardships because of inequitable systems like access to health care, employment, housing, and justice. The nation then moves towards healing and action. While progress is slow and sporadic at the beginning, it becomes steady by the end of 2021. People COVID-19 deaths realize that these systems aren’t just failing communities of color; they’re failing everyone. surpass WWII totals With higher levels of trust and cohesion, people work together on real structural reforms. Healthcare, climate change, affordable housing, policing, and a revived labor movement are all on the table. More than 500 foundations Some call for a new social compact that rethinks the way governments, corporations, and civil society sign new “Debt Pledge” to interact. Nonprofits and funders work hard to make sure voices of underserved communities are increase giving included in conversations about new systems. The election is historic as a large number of states use mail-in voting. The results are challenged Implications for the through the winter of 2020, but are ultimately accepted. Throughout 2021, Americans reevaluate the social sector role of the government with real energy for increased federal spending by the end of the year. What foundations and nonprofits face Out of the throes of The social sector faces some tough choices about what to prioritize. We never really escape relief devastation, the nation mode, as communities struggle with meeting basic needs and there is enormous pressure to provide emerges with a growing cash, food, and housing to out-of-work families. At the same time, organizations work to balance recognition of the need to this urgent need with the perceived once-in-a-generation chance to make progress on key structural fundamentally change our reforms. Nonprofits implore funders and donors to fund at greater levels to ensure that the sector existing systems. Nonprofits can provide direct relief while also working to change entrenched systems. and funders need to find a way to balance efforts to Funders and nonprofits re-imagine their own practices by moving resources and decision-making meet urgent, basic needs more into the hands of grantees and the communities most-affected by the crisis. with opportunities to think big about how to catalyze Some funders also have an opportunity to re-shape the narrative and intellectual agenda during this systemic change. Social sector time of crisis. Efforts to “re-imagine” capitalism, neoliberalism, and international relations abound, leaders will also have a critical though the level of coordination between funders on these questions remains an open question. role in working to make sure that constituent voices are There’s also an opportunity to re-think the sector’s role with government in a positive way and a heard in the midst of larger renewed openness to use government funding to scale promising social programs. change processes. 19