An event or an era? | The scenarios Scenario 1 1 4 Return to “normal” 2 3 Low Crisis, High Cooperation At a glance A vaccine is developed in late 2020 and begins to be distributed using existing influenza vaccine infrastructure as people rejoice after a year of pain and loss. 2021 is a year for healing—physically, mentally, and economically—as we embark on a sustained, steady recovery. Politicians work together enough to get a deal on additional government stimulus, which allows most families to tread water until hiring ramps back up. Racial justice protests ignite a desire for change, bringing communities together. While modest reforms take hold, many Americans have limited appetite and energy for taking on larger, more structural transformation on the heels of the COVID-19 crisis. Many nonprofit leaders find themselves frustrated that we snap back to the status quo instead of continuing the push for deeper systems change. What you would need to believe • A vaccine or treatment comes in late 2020 or early 2021. It is produced and We tend to overreact to new distributed at scale and succeeds in getting the virus under control. People risks and then we tend to resume activities at something close to pre-crisis levels, aggregate demand “ absorb them and move on. rebounds, and the economy recovers more quickly than is expected. That will ultimately happen • The shared experience of the crisis ultimately results in a desire to create here.”12 change, but the pull of simply returning to the way things were provides a strong counterbalance. Larry Kramer • As trust in institutions increases, people believe change will arise from The William and Flora reforming the system, not breaking it. Hewlett Foundation May 2020 Impact on the social sector & communities Philanthropy Nonprofits Funders face strong pressure from nonprofits to As the crisis lessens over time, the level of continue less restrictive grantmaking processes as community need and funding available begins boards begin to ask, “Was our COVID-19 response to normalize, though not all organizations make effective?” Funders that didn’t immediately adjust it through. Relationships and power dynamics their strategy in response to the crisis may have with funders improve. Nonprofits also improve even more “dry powder” available to push for relationships with government to deliver services reform on the issues they care about. and shape reforms. Equity Racial disparities around the virus and economic recovery linger. For some, the racial justice protests triggered by long standing inequities are a tipping point that lead to an increased focus and drive for change. Others are eager to put the troubles of 2020 behind them and look to better days ahead. 12