An event or an era? | What are the critical axes of uncertainty What are the critical axes of uncertainty To shape the scenarios, we explored two critical uncertainties that we believe will most significantly shape demands on the social sector over the next 12-18 months: the severity of the crisis—a combination of both health and economic variables (which, although not perfectly intertwined, are likely to be closely correlated)—and the level of social cooperation. What is the continued severity of the crisis? Definition: The level of harm and dislocation experienced by the population as a result of the depth and duration of the health and economic impacts of the pandemic Lower Impact Higher Impact • The virus is brought under relative control • The virus is harder to control and the number of by the development of treatments, testing and infections and deaths soar monitoring, and/or vaccines • The economy is devastated as cities and states are • The economy steadily recovers, and the economic forced to repeatedly shut down and shelter in place. damage of the downturn, while bad, is more limited Unemployment and other economic indicators persist at record levels What is the level of social cooperation? Definition: The relative willingness of society to work together across lines of difference towards common or collective goals Fragmented United Sporadic Enduring Factional Broad-based Variable • Breaches of institutional trust limit our ability to • A unified sense of purpose to address the crisis effectively work toward common goals ultimately prevails • Where coordination is found, it is entirely factional • People and organizations seek out ways to collectively in nature solve cross-sector problems • Attempts at change and reform are gridlocked • The value of collective responsibility is prioritized, and many divisions are overcome 10