An event or an era? | The scenarios Scenario 3 1 4 A nation on the brink 2 3 High Crisis, Low Cooperation At a glance The virus is unrelenting with no cure or effective treatment in sight. The economy craters and it does so in an incredibly unequal manner. Society divides further along existing fault lines and is on the brink of shattering. Governments are gridlocked and additional aid to workers, states, and nonprofits dries up. A slew of municipal bankruptcies ensues and the nonprofit sector faces a major contraction. Protests and counter protests become increasingly common and increasingly violent amidst the chaos. Funders are overwhelmed and act unpredictably. Nonprofits claw for resources in a zero-sum contest. What you would need to believe • There is little hope that the virus will be contained, and without a vaccine or We’re all facing the same effective treatments, people will choose to operate in individualistic ways. storm, but we’re not all in • In times of crisis and without unifying leadership, people will splinter off to “ the same boat. Some of us fragmented groups that reinforce existing narratives. are in duct-taped rafts and • With high scarcity and lack of coordination, nonprofits are forced into a “hunger others are in reinforced games” mentality for resources. cruiser ships and there’s • Things can get really bad, really quickly. really no comparing the vessels.”14 Tulaine Montgomery New Profit May 2020 Impact on the social sector & communities Philanthropy Nonprofits Failing state and local governments look to The sector contracts significantly due to philanthropy for bailouts. Faced with gross retrenchment from donors and a plummeting injustices, public sector demands, and a economy. Nonprofits must decide how to allocate contracting nonprofit sector, funders are in the little they have. Boards and staff are divided uncharted waters. Some retrench, while others and see community need differently based on their spend down entirely. degree of proximity. Trust erodes between funders and nonprofits. Equity The unequal effects of the virus and economic recession are described as atrocities. Anger at this injustice is felt by many, but their cries largely go unanswered as those in power choose to divert resources away to other, more mainstream efforts. 16