An event or an era? | The scenarios Scenario 2 1 4 Social fabric unraveled 2 3 Low Crisis, Low Cooperation At a glance New treatments and lower mortality rates make the virus an “acceptable risk” for many. The economy recovers as consumer confidence increases. But as the virus is increasingly managed, the divisions stemming from the differential spread of COVID-19 pull communities apart. The disproportionate impact of the crisis on marginalized populations stirs up deep-seated fear, distrust, and fracturing along predictable lines. In particular, racial justice protests become an accelerant that highlights division, entrenchment, and social unrest. What you would need to believe • Improved understanding and better treatments of the virus mean that we can Without social cohesion, flatten the curve and lower the risk of death to “acceptable” levels. the default rallying cry is • People observe the unequal effects of the virus and racial injustice, but avoid “ “protect yourself and the addressing them productively, preferring to demonize and fight the other side. 13 people you care about.” • The social sector will operate in an increasingly polarized context. Alejandro Gibes de Gac • With no shared narrative of the crisis, people will struggle to trust and retrench Springboard Collaborative into their existing belief systems. May 2020 Impact on the social sector & communities Philanthropy Nonprofits As societal divisions and gaps in government Nonprofits, who are still recovering from the programs grow, funders must decide how to pandemic, experience increased pressure and respond. Should they fill the gaps? Which ones? demand as society turns to them to fill gaps as trust Should they more fully check their values and in government erodes. The funder-grantee power commit to an ideological point of view? Should they imbalance grows as many grapple with how to maintain the “sensible center” to ease growing appeal to funders’ changing strategies. tensions? Equity Even under a best case recovery, marginalized communities and proximate organizations serving them suffer disproportionally. With low social cooperation, tensions around racial, ideological, and socioeconomic issues are exacerbated, resulting in deeper divides. 14