3.6 Patterns of Production and Consumption The Patterns of Production and Consumption driver focuses on the changes in the mix of trading commodities and patterns, and the potential redistribution of global centers of manufacturing and consumption. This driver is closely linked to several other drivers, including: Demographics and Shifting Social Values, Geopolitical Stability, and Energy Transition, and it represents both the supply and demand components of the scenarios. Original Definition of the Driver (2010) • How will trade patterns shift through 2050? • How will changing locations of consumers and goods producers impact trade flows? • How will demand for key gateway commodities shift over time? Driver Updates This driver remains largely unchanged and continues to focus on changes in trade patterns and locations of consumers and producers. The consultation process highlighted several additional trends relevant to this driver, such as the belief that while there is likely to be a change in the mix of trading commodities, the demand for Canadian resources is likely to stay strong. The discussion focused on how technology innovation and evolving social views on globalization might influence this trend. As a result, the driver has been updated to capture the uncertainty around how technology and varying energy and manufacturing costs could disrupt the locations of goods production. The trend in “re-onshoring” of manufacturing from Asia to North America raised a level of uncertainty as to how the location of manufacturing, both globally and within Asia may change. In particular, where goods are produced in Asia could have an effect on the location of major trade routes, which would have a significant impact on the gateway. Updated Definition • How will trade patterns shift through 2050? • How will changing locations of consumers and goods producers impact trade flows? • How will demand for key gateway commodities shift over time? • How will technology and changing costs of energy impact where goods are produced? 3.7 Innovation The Innovation Driver looks at how technological, social and policy innovation will impact the global shipping and manufacturing industries, and the ability of the gateway to leverage innovation and adapt to these changes. Note that this is different to the original definition of the driver as explained below. Original Definition of the Driver (2010) • How will technology improve goods movement and handling? • How large will ships get? • What new transport technologies will emerge? • What innovations could disrupt the transportation and logistics industries? Driver Updates As shown, the original definition of the driver focused solely on technological innovation. While technological innovations were seen as some of the most critical drivers of uncertainty for the future, it Port 2050 Scenario Update Initiative - 2015 13