Lastly, consideration of whether the gateway will cooperate with other ports, such as Port of Prince Rupert, was included as a key factor that may alleviate the limitations on land availability in the gateway, and acknowledges the inherent linkages between ports as part of their supply chains. Updated Definition • How competitive will the gateway be for business, labour, investors and trade? • How will the gateway’s productivity change over time? • Will gateway stakeholders and other groups manage to work together to develop an integrated, reliable and competitive supply chain? • Will the gateway be able to cooperate and align with other ports? • How will changing regulation and legislation impact gateway competitiveness? 3.5 Geopolitical Stability The Geopolitical Stability driver has a dominant focus on the volatility of the geopolitical environment and how the shifting balances of power might affect the gateway – both directly and indirectly - by impacting the external markets which the gateway relies for trade. Coming out of the Global Financial Crisis in 2010, the real potential for changes in the dominant political powers across the world was recognized. Primarily this focused on China’s, and the rest of Asia’s, continued growth path demonstrating dominance and strength in an environment of floundering Western economies. Original Definition of the Driver (2010) • How will the rise of new political economic actors, shifting balances of power and the relative fortunes of the US and Canada affect the gateway? • In what arenas will Asia dominate? • How volatile will the geopolitical environment be? Driver Updates This driver was still seen to be valid and very much increasing in importance in light of geopolitical instability such as what has been seen in Ukraine, Crimea and Middle East. The scenarios describe the concept of volatility and this driver forms the cornerstone of that volatility. The volatility manifests itself through the global energy markets and trade patterns which have been highlighted in the updates to this driver. Asia continues to be perceived as critically important in this driver, however, whether it would “dominate” was not seen as a given. This uncertainty was reframed to consider what roles the various countries within Asia would play in the evolving geopolitical environment along with the role that Asia overall would play in trade globally. Another critical theme seen to be a major uncertainty is the impact increasingly uneven distribution of wealth across the world will have on stability. It is a relative certainty that it will continue to be uneven, at least for a time, but how it will play out and its impacts are unclear. Updated Definition • How will the rise of new political economic actors, shifting balances of power and the relative fortunes of the US and Canada affect the gateway? • How will shifting roles of Asia impact the gateway? • How volatile will the geopolitical environment be and how will it impact global energy markets and trade? • What effect will uneven distribution of wealth have on geopolitical stability? Port 2050 Scenario Update Initiative - 2015 12