It is also recognized in the updated scenario that many incremental changes are occurring around a move to more renewable energy sources and incentives or penalties for high-carbon energy are being put in place across the world. However, these will not grow in scale and will not form a ground-swell of change at a global level around triple bottom line principles as is seen in the Great Transition and Local Fortress scenarios. Changes to the narrative in the regional/national context were focused on drawing a clear link between how a lack of alignment among industry, government and community coupled with each group “digging- in” on their opposing views, leads to poor competitiveness and attractiveness of the gateway for trade. The gateway is then locked out of trade with key emerging markets and many of the major regional energy projects do not go ahead because of these issues. Ultimately, this leads to a structural decline in gateway competitiveness and the negative effects of declining trade through the gateway has also been emphasized for both the gateway and the rest of Canada. Revised Scenario Narrative This is a scenario where emerging market growth is strong, but the gateway misses key opportunities and doesn’t live up to expectations, due to supply chain inefficiencies, poor stakeholder alignment, and a lack of community support. Competitiveness worsens. Meanwhile, a game-changer emerges: trade patterns shift to favour trade routes between emerging economies, which over 40 years affects the entire west coast. Climate change is still an issue, and will need to be dealt with by future generations. World Context 2015-2030: Emerging Markets Rising This is a world in which emerging markets drive global growth and reap the lion’s share of the benefits. The current prosperity model is delivering the economic goods, proving resilient and the best route to global stability and raising standards of living. During the 2020s, new energy technologies, a shift away from coal toward cleaner natural gas, and sustainable supply chain efficiencies help mitigate the impact of this growth on the environment, though deteriorating environmental quality continues to be a concern, something the world would have to deal with later. Things look promising in the first 10 to 15 years. The economy picks up as the emerging world — China, India, Brazil and even parts of Africa, grow rapidly. In the same way as the Asian Tiger economies rose up in the late 20th century, this growth creates a virtuous cycle of greater prosperity and social progress in these countries. Of course, this growth is not without challenges; while prosperity is increasing in many parts of the world, so is the gap in wealth between the rich and the poor. Despite a few regional conflicts, a relative sense of stability is maintained on a global level. With rising prosperity and wealth of emerging economies, their power and influence on the global stage also increases. By 2030, it becomes clear the geopolitical centre of gravity is shifting toward the emerging economies. Regional/National Context 2015-2030: Hands tied Despite these favourable global conditions, the gateway falls well short of hopes and expectations. The reasons are both internal and external. On the one hand, it’s unable to overcome key challenges, from labour issues to corridor and supply chain inefficiencies, losing out to competing ports. Community support for continued port activity and growth wanes because of ongoing operational impacts and a poor understanding of the gateway’s value. In these early years, the gateway has a hard time making a compelling case against community and industry concerns as it receives the bulk of blame for the chronic gridlock in the Lower Mainland. A lack of Port 2050 Scenario Update Initiative - 2015 25