Regional/National Context 2030 – 2050: Beware of Unintended Consequences Toward the end of this scenario, the Lower Mainland looks very different than it did in 2015. In many areas, including Burrard Inlet, waterfront industry has given way to residential uses and tourism amenities. Having access to clean and affordable hydroelectric power, local manufacturing also does well. The 2030s sees local interest groups gaining increasing influence and a high degree of control in decision making and shaping the direction of the region. With the shift toward tourism and local manufacturing, the cruise ship industry and short sea shipping are vibrant. Some people view this transition as a positive outcome. For those who can afford it, the Lower Mainland is still a pleasant place to live and visit. Around 2040, the region has become a lifestyle bubble for many, a place to retire and retreat. Commodities such as coal are no longer exported through the gateway and trade is increasingly routed to other ports at increased costs to Canadian shippers. With an older population, the demand for social services in the Lower Mainland has substantially increased, but a reduced economic base means the region is reliant on the rest of the country to help pay the bills. Conversely, the reduction of trade through the gateway has negative effects on the rest of Canada and in the 2040s, trade is predominately moving through other ports on the North-Western Seaboard. Ultimately, while still ethnically diverse, the region is paradoxically less global and more inwardly focused. Looking back, that creative tension between business and community was an important source of balance and vitality in the region. While achieving its own focus on environmental sustainability and human well- being objectives, the region has pushed major industry and many of its residents outside of the Lower Mainland and the area has lost some of its character, vibrancy and its sense of authenticity. 5.2 Scenario 2: Missed the Boat Introduction The original narrative of this scenario from the 2010 planning exercise envisioned strong growth in emerging markets and focused on the gateway’s regional challenges to meet the growing demand and remain competitive. As played out in the scenario, the gateway ultimately fails to meet this challenge because of problems with supply chain issues, poor coordination amongst gateway actors, lack of community support for trade and diminishing industry support for trade through the gateway. Feedback from the December participant workshop focused primarily on providing additional detail of how a lack of alignment among the various parties could set the stage for this scenario to play out: • Misalignment between various levels of government, and a lack of support from other parts of the country will have negative impact on gateway infrastructure development. • Failure to engage the public and secure public support to operate will inhibit growth and make it difficult to operate. • Lack of coordination in the early part of the scenario results in lasting consequences – especially in terms of Canada being “locked-out” of key emerging markets. • Inability of gateway actors to work together toward a shared vision to create an efficient and reliable supply chain will damage the “brand” of the gateway and eventually lead the gateway to lose out to competing gateways. Summary of Updates Based on feedback that was received, and additional discussions with Port Metro Vancouver leadership, the global context of this scenario remained largely unchanged, however the narrative was modified to more closely align the global context with the updates to the Global Prosperity Model axis. Most notably, the themes around the growing wealth gap and its role in contributing to significant volatility was clarified. Port 2050 Scenario Update Initiative - 2015 24