3.2 Demographics and Shifting Social Values The purpose of this driver is to highlight the future impact of population shifts, demographic changes, social views on globalization and sustainability, and attitudes toward development. It is important to recognize that this driver addresses both issues related to the regional perspective, such as shifting local demographics and public support to operate and grow, as well as a global/macro perspective, such as the relative growth rates of major global population centers and the associated effects on external markets important to the gateway. Original Definition of the Driver (2010) • What global population shifts will happen? (driven by demographics, migration, or other forces) • How will these shifts impact goods production and consumption? • How will the regional population evolve? • How will social views of globalization and trade evolve? • How will local views of the port evolve? Driver Updates Through the consultation process, no major changes were made and the driver remains focused on population changes and shifting social values. However, there is greater emphasis on the importance of community engagement. As key stakeholders for the gateway, community support will be critical in shaping how the gateway operates and how it expands. As discussed in the Capacity to Grow driver, land remains a major constraint for the gateway and hence the gateway’s growth needs to balance with residential and community land needs. For that reason, issues surrounding public support for port/gateway operations were included as part of this driver. It was also expressed through this process that while the last few years have seen some debate around the validity of climate change, this was now seen more as a certainty, and hence would be a key issue shaping public opinion going forward. As a result, social views on sustainability and climate change have received more focus in the revised definition. Updated Definition • What global population shifts will happen (driven by demographics, migration, or other forces)? • How will these shifts impact goods production and consumption? • How will the regional population evolve? • How will societal views of sustainability and climate change unfold regionally and globally? • How will varying public support for operations and growth impact the gateway? 3.3 Energy Transition This driver focuses on issues dealing with the shift from a global energy base dominated by hydrocarbons to greater use of alternative energy sources. Uncertainties related to the viability of alternative fuels, the pace and timing of the transition, and the impacts of that transition on the global transportation industry are all considered as part of the Energy Transition driver. Furthermore, this driver could be considered to be one of the most important given the large role it plays in driving and characterizing the shift to an alternative prosperity model in both the Great Transition and Local Fortress scenarios. Original Definition of the Driver (2010) • When will the world reach “peak oil”? • What will the implications be for global goods transport? Port 2050 Scenario Update Initiative - 2015 10