• Will higher energy prices dominate? • What alternatives to hydrocarbons will develop, and how quickly? Driver Updates During the consultation process, participants described how a transition to alternative forms of energy is likely to be driven by people’s desire to move away from carbon-based fuels in order to slow climate change, rather than the world running out of oil. As a result, greater emphasis is now given to the demand side of the change (that is, the desire to move away from hydrocarbons) rather than the supply side (that is, hydrocarbons running out and the world reaching “peak oil”). The driver has also been updated to reflect the fact that high oil prices are not a critical factor today, given the recent drop in price. Finally, Canada’s role in the energy markets has been included as a key uncertainty within this driver. This reflects the current situation of a significant number and scale of major energy projects that may, or may not go ahead in BC and Canada. Updated Definition • What alternatives to hydrocarbons will develop, and how quickly? • What will the implications be for global goods transport? • What role will Canada play in global energy markets? 3.4 Gateway Competitiveness The Gateway Competitiveness driver focuses on the competitive position of the gateway with respect to its ability to attract business, labour, investment and trade. In this context, cost, efficiency, and reliability are seen as the primary measures of competitiveness. However, other factors of competitiveness, such as the level of sustainability, are also important to the degree to which these other measures are valued by the gateway’s customers and other stakeholders. Original Definition of the Driver (2010) • How attractive will the gateway be for business, labour, investors and trade? • How productive will the gateway’s labour force be? • Will gateway actors share a common strategy? Driver Updates This driver was seen to be very closely tied to the Capacity to Grow driver, and the gateway’s increased capacity will be a key component of its competitiveness. Port Metro Vancouver leadership, experts and participants saw the efficiency of the gateway’s supply chain as a critical driver in this regard. A very important component of this driver and the scenarios themselves, was highlighted as the ability of various gateway and regional stakeholders (including government and industry) to work together towards the creation of an efficient, integrated and cost-competitive supply chain. As a result, the driver has been updated to emphasize uncertainties around the productiveness of the regional skilled labor force and whether gateway actors will work together to achieve a competitive regional supply chain. The regulatory and legislative environment was identified as continuing to be highly uncertain, which is reflected in the updated definition. This ties closely to the ability of all levels of government to work together, particularly the many municipalities with direct interests in the gateway as a hub for trade. Port 2050 Scenario Update Initiative - 2015 11