gAteWAy context 2010-2030: regionAlizAtion of trAde And mindsets Within this economic climate, the benefits of globalization are being called into question. local politicians argue persuasively that the region would be less vulnerable and more resilient if it focuses on local manufacturing, food production and cottage industries. With fewer household dollars to spend, local most people agree. Fortress over time, the industry is forced to downsize and relocate activities outside of the inner harbour of burrard inlet. the silver lining is that the Fraser river is still active given the rise of cottage industries. in fact, while policies become more protectionist and mindsets are more insular, trade flows This is a scenario where Gateway growth is more regionally, which in turn boosts coastal shipping. constrained because the Lower Mainland World context 2030-2050: focuses on the regional economy, local technology chAnges the gAme Just as the economy recovers in the middle of this scenario, resiliency and well-being. a technological game-changer reinforces the shift to more a ‘local fortress’ emerges as a reaction to additional global local production. economic crises and a slowdown in asian growth, which in a computer fabrication process known as 3d printing turn depresses and changes consumption patterns worldwide. emerges, allowing for the local production of many goods gateway activity is downsized, but still services cottage using sophisticated equipment and software. this technology industries. short-sea shipping does well with a regional, West can produce almost everything from watches to shoes to coast focus. in the end, the region’s early choices to become basic electronics — consumer goods that previously had a “lifestyle region” come back to haunt it, as its vitality and been imported. hopes of being a global hub diminish over time. over the decades, 3d printing becomes quite a reliable method for creating a whole range of goods and products. World context 2010-2030: this, in turn, disrupts entire global supply chains, which middle clAss holloWing reinforces the localization of manufacturing even further. it seems like the global economic crisis of 2008 never really trade volumes diminish as supply chains simplify to move ended. although recoveries occur, waves of multiple economic smaller quantities of raw materials to local facilities adjacent crises continue, never really allowing the canadian middle to retail locations. Moving semi-finished components and class to rebound. domestically, canada witnesses a real packaged goods becomes a thing of the past. estate bubble bursting as baby boomers start to downsize and off-load their homes in the suburbs. then, around 2020, gAteWAy context 2030-2050: economic growth in emerging markets slows due to a range of BeWAre of unintended consequences challenges, including environmental and political. While major toward the end of this scenario, the lower Mainland looks economies such as china are far from collapsing, it is clear very different than it did in 2011. in many areas, including that decades of breakneck growth are taking their toll. burrard inlet, waterfront industry has given way to residential these economic slowdowns impact global consumption uses and tourism amenities. some people view this transition patterns, with people in developed countries increasingly as a positive outcome. For those who can afford it, the lower doing more with less, or buying smarter. in fact, the word Mainland is still a pleasant place to live and visit. but something “consumer” is used less and less, a sign of the times. important has been lost in this urban experiment. the region this back-to-basics ethos isn’t all doom and gloom, however. has become a lifestyle bubble for many; a place to retire business does well in non-traditional sectors: spirituality, health and retreat. and well-being, community (virtual and physical) and learning. While ethnically still diverse, the region is paradoxically less in a 2020 survey, most people report being no more or less global, more inwardly focused and less tolerant of different happy than they were in the previous decade. Meanwhile, worldviews. looking back, that creative tension between the wealthiest segments of society continue to lead a highly business and community was an important source of balance material lifestyle; consumption in luxury goods show no signs and vitality in the region. by pushing major industry outside of abating. however, the overall economic slowdown has its of the lower Mainland, the area lost some of its character, advantages as it takes pressure off the environment. vibrancy and its sense of authenticity. 13 14