incorporate both the expected and unexpected, as well as conventional and unconventional thinking. in order for them to be useful, scenarios must be plausible, relevant and challenging; they also need to differ from one another and cover the range of possibilities that we could face as a port and a gateway. the building blocks of scenarios are known as key drivers of change, which represent important trends, forecasts and uncertainties facing the gateway. Many drivers of change were identified throughout the Port 2050 process and the final characterizations were agreed upon at the final scenario-building workshop. Participants ranked these driving forces and future factors on levels of both importance and Why scenArio plAnning? uncertainty. the intersection of these critical issues forms To help us proactively create the future we want by thinking in terms the basis for the Port 2050 scenarios. of multiple possibilities. cApAcity to groW To encourage us to imagine what might happen if our expectations how will pressures from population growth, climate change, for the future do not come true. or unforeseen factors affect the gateway? how will competing To strive for innovation and creativity by requiring that we think views on industrial, residential and agricultural land use be farther out into the future than we normally take the time to do. resolved? Will the Port maintain, strengthen or lose its social license to operate? demogrAphics And shifting sociAl VAlues What global population shifts will happen — driven by using a highly participatory process over the two-day demographics, migration, or other forces? how will these workshop, the group developed four preliminary scenarios shifts impact goods production and consumption? how will on the future of the Port, the gateway and our collective the regional population evolve? how will social views of business environment. each of these scenarios was enriched globalization and trade evolve? how will local views of by the wide range of perspectives, knowledge and aspirations the Port evolve? brought to the exercise. energy trAnsition Following the workshop, the Port 2050 team further refined When will the world reach “peak oil”? What will the implications the preliminary scenarios with additional research, in-depth analysis and a series of internal workshops to test the be for global goods transport? Will higher energy prices plausibility of scenario details and identify their strategic dominate? What alternatives to hydrocarbons will develop, and how quickly? implications. The final scenarios that emerged contain the essential elements identified in the preliminary scenarios, gAteWAy competitiVeness which were further developed. the result is four very different and plausible visions of the future, which will be described how attractive will the gateway be for business, labour, more fully in the following pages. investors and trade? how productive will the gateway’s labour force be? Will gateway actors share a common strategy? about scenario Planning geopoliticAl stABility over the last 40 years, scenario planning has emerged as how will the rise of new political economic actors, shifting balances of power and the relative fortunes of the us a leading strategic tool, a proven way to make flexible long- term plans and manage uncertainties. and canada affect the gateway? in what arenas will asia scenario planning helps us proactively create the future we dominate? how volatile will the geopolitical environment be? want by thinking in terms of multiple possibilities and by pAtterns of production And consumption plotting a course between prediction and paralysis. it is also how will trade patterns shift through 2050? how will changing a critical tool to improve our decisions in the present, because it helps us expand our perspective, identify new opportunities locations of consumers and goods producers impact trade flows? and adjust our strategies on an ongoing basis. how will demand for key gateway commodities shift over time? it is important to remember that scenarios are not technologicAl innoVAtion predictions. rather, they are alternative stories of the future; how will technology improve goods movement and handling? they depict how current events and trends could play out how large will ships get? What new transport technologies will over time. scenarios describe a range of possibilities that emerge? What innovations could disrupt the transportation and logistics industries? 7 8