the scenarios in order to challenge our thinking and build divergent scenarios, we developed a matrix by crossing two axes, delineating four separate future environments. these two axes represent the most important and most uncertain drivers of change, allowing our scenarios to be as rich as possible and include multiple trends and possibilities. horizontAl Axis: gloBAl prosperity model the global Prosperity Model axis describes patterns around globalization, macroeconomics and energy, and is fundamentally about the nature of demand. “A port isn’t just a local thing. It brings on the far left of the axis, the current economic growth- the world to you and you take things driven model remains dominant. this assumes a continuation of our current system, including globalization, traditional to the world. So it requires a economic measures of gdP and growth, and the predominant global perspective.” use of hydrocarbon-based energy. While significant changes port 2050 pArticipAnt do happen, there is no paradigm shift in scenarios on the left side of the axis. on the far right, an alternative prosperity model emerges. this assumes a fundamental change in the nature of globalization, economic growth and definitions around prosperity that assign greater importance to values such as environmental quality and human well-being. Within this axis, we also include the transition to a post-carbon economy as well as a demographic and social transformation that could emerge from a new generation of leadership. VerticAl Axis: the cApAcity of the gAteWAy the capacity of gateway axis incorporates issues of competitiveness, infrastructure, land use, social license, talent, local economic strength and collaboration between port stakeholders. Fundamentally, this axis is about the nature of supply. it encompasses Port Metro Vancouver, but is about the gateway and region more broadly. At the bottom of this axis, we find capacity constrained and/or decreasing. in scenarios on this side of the axis, the gateway as a whole is challenged by any number of factors — both internal and external — that limit its ability to adapt, grow and be successful. At the top of the axis, capacity is adaptive and/or increasing, meaning the gateway is able to respond, adapt, cooperate and thrive in changing circumstances. ABout our scenArios on the pages that follow, we share with you the four scenarios that were developed through the Port 2050 process. they are written in a narrative format, to encourage us to imagine our world 40 years from now. When reading them, it is important to focus not on whether you agree with or like the scenarios, but to consider whether they make us more prepared for the risks and opportunities ahead. these are by no means exhaustive outlooks. and while no single scenario is likely to accurately reflect how the future will unfold, they are useful tools to help us imagine the potential implications of the decisions we make today by testing them in a range of possible futures. 9 10