The award for stable box office revenues in the face of digital media goes to… Deloitte Global predicts that the value of movie theater The annual movie box office is driven heavily by the admissions in the US and Canada will fall by about three fortunes of the top five blockbusters. The popularity percent in 2016, to about $10.6 billion, with about of these films accounts for most of the year-on-year 1.3 billion tickets sold. It is impossible to forecast beyond volatility. Since 2007, the trend has been for the five that with any precision: box office is so dependent on highest-grossing films to generate over 40 percent of 189 the slate of movies released. Between 1996 and 2015, the box office (see Figure 8). In 2014 the top five 190 the annual box office revenue change is nearly random, fared poorly and the box office fell five percent . although it has never gone up by more than 10 percent Last year was better, up a forecast eight percent. 186 or fallen by more than six percent and the number of 2016 may surprise, but at time of writing one industry tickets sold has never gone up by more than 12 percent forecast is for a slightly weaker slate of blockbusters, 187 191 or fallen by more than six percent . Given that, we and therefore a decline, although not as bad as 2014 . expect average annual revenue growth in the near-term to be about one percent, but within a range of plus or minus 10 percent, and the number of tickets sold to decline about one percent per year. Box office dollars are likely to grow, but at a minimal pace, and are actually likely to decline (also at a minimal pace) if 188 inflation is taken into account . Figure 8: Contribution (%) from top five films to total box office revenues Contribution (%) % % 0%  % % % %  % %  % 2% 2% % 1% 0% 0% 3% 3% 3% 0% 1% 0% 3% 3 % 33% 3 % 3% 30% 32% 2% 2% 20% 10% 0%  1 2 3  1 2 3  1 2 3  1 2 3  1 2 3  1 2 3  1 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 1 1 1 Source: Canaccord Genuity. For further information on the source, see endnotes. The annual movie box office is driven heavily by the fortunes of the top five blockbusters. 30