Average monthly pay-TV bill. Deloitte Global predicts Many North Americans are unaware that many of the Deloitte Global that the monthly TV bill in 2016 will be about five channels they would like to watch are available for predicts the percent higher than the average $100 per month bill no monthly charge with the installation of a digital number of in 2015, or lower than the historical growth rate of antenna that allows for over-the-air (OTA) TV viewing, over six percent, reflecting the combined effects of either live or time-shifted if they have a recorder. antenna-only small numbers of cord shavers and fewer consumers For some Americans, this may require a more expensive homes (or adding channels. The average US bill for pay-TV grew roof-mounted antenna, but for the more than 80 percent 236 241 by 6.1 percent per year between 1995 and 2015. who live in urban areas , the antenna can be indoors 242 antenna plus Deloitte Global further predicts that the bill growth is near a window or exterior wall and costs less than $20 . Internet TV) likely to decline by about one percentage point per year OTA digital TV is commonplace in Europe, but only about so that by 2020 ARPU is likely to be under one percent, 12.7 million US homes were receiving broadcast as of to increase and may even have begun to decline, although still at Q2 2015, or 651,000 higher than the same period in 243 by less than a relatively slow rate. 2014 . There are many articles that specifically address 244 cord cutters using antennas , and some distributors fear one million in The number of channels available to the average US that they will see a surge in OTA homes, as cord-cutters 2016, to about pay-TV subscriber has increased by almost 50 percent cancel traditional distribution bundles; get some channels 237 13.5 million since 2008, from under 130 channels to nearly 190 . from their antenna and buy a small bespoke selection of Over that period the number of channels watched by OTT services. homes, and the average viewer has declined from 15 channels in 238 to about 2012 to 11 in 2014 . As some 90 percent of channels There is some evidence of this trend, but it is much that are being paid for are unwatched, some subscribers smaller than most people expect. OTA-only homes in 18 million may be thinking about cord shaving: choosing packages the US were more or less flat at just over 11 million homes with fewer channels, or fewer packages, with the result from 2010-2013, but the number has recently begun by 2020. being lower monthly spend. growing, and at a faster rate: 500,000 additional homes went OTA-only in 2014 and nearly a million in A few cord shavers may be substituting a traditional 2015 (although the year-over-year growth was highest pay-TV package with a lower-cost subscription video on 245 in Q1 – in Q2 and Q3 it was less than 700,000) . demand (SVOD) service. Were this behavior widespread, The modest rise in OTA viewing affects each of the parts we would have likely seen a decline in monthly pay-TV of the traditional TV industry differently. Cable, telco and bills, but this has not happened. In fact average bills satellite providers of TV packages are likely to see a small are still rising, rising from $89 in 2014 to over $99 in effect on subscriber numbers and revenues (although 239 2015, according to one survey . Another 2015 survey only 53 percent of broadcast-only homes are broadband shows that over 80 percent of pay-TV subscribers are 246 subscribers, so that partially offsets the decline ). spending the same or more as in 2014, and that they However, TV broadcasters and their advertisers are not are remarkably stable in the services they are buying: affected by a move from traditional pay-TV bundle to 64 percent kept the same services as last year, 17.8 percent OTA: as long as viewers are watching their programs added services, and 18.6 percent cut services – for a net (and the ads) then they are largely indifferent to the 240 annual change of only 0.8 percent . distribution method. Antenna instead of pay-TV. Deloitte Global predicts Average daily TV viewing, live and time-shifted. the number of antenna-only homes (or antenna plus Deloitte Global predicts that daily TV minutes for the Internet TV) to increase by less than one million in 2016, adult population will continue to fall at a slow but to about 13.5 million homes, and to about 18 million 247 steady rate in 2016, to 320 minutes per day in Q1 . homes by 2020. On average, adults in the US watched over 330 minutes of traditional live and time-shifted TV per day in Q1 2015 on a TV set. This is 14 minutes down from 2014, and 248 10 minutes lower than in 2013 . 36